So, there's still three seats in play and we won't have a final result until sometime next week, so the principle upshot is that like a score draw in a cup final, we now go into political penalties: furious horse trading just like in the UK in May.
Annabel Crab summed it up best: "national puzzlement...a collective 'huh?'" It seems that bereft of any real inpsiration or enthusiasm with either side, the nation abstained as if as one voice. A deafening silence. And now a motley crew of five, possibly six, "cross" bench-ers hold the fate of the naiton in their hands.
As a self-confessed champagne socialist I still managed to find some things to celebrate on Saturday night (I over-optimistically bought a lot of champagne!), and here's how I Tweeted these highlights:
- "To be honest happy to see the back of McKew. Great Lateline host, rubbish pollie!"
- "Nice to see the Greens in the house of reps, although I'd rather have Tanner"
- "Sen. Fielding's gone? Oh champion, that's cheered me up no end!"
- "At least Wilson tuckey got sacked, there's some justice"
Also, of course, the election of the first indigenous and muslim members of the House of Reps, and the first child, should be noted; as well as as many as Nine Greens now holding the balance of power in the senate from July next year, which means the environment will again become an urgent priority for whomever is in government, instead of the elephant in the room.
Of the three seats up for grabs (I think they are Brisbane, Dennison and Hasluck) and I think Labor will win Brisbane, Andrew Wilkie will have Dennison and Tony Crook will win Hasluck. Of the "cross bench-ers" one is a green who has already declared for labor, one is an ex-green and three are former nationals who hate the national party but are naturally conservatives. Certainly the fate of two policies - the NBN and the ETS - are now probably secure because between the independents and the Greens both these acronyms will be key show-stoppers on any negotiation if they are ruled out. (There is a possible sixth element in Tony Crook who can't seem to decide if he wants to be a National inside or outside the party room, or inside or outside the Coalition.) In short - there's one seat it and of the three yet to call, one could go to Labor or the Coalition and the other two are weird.
What concerns me the most is exactly what Mr Rabbit said - this was a govt that couldn't organize a piss up in a brewery WITH a 17 seat majority, I dread to think what we won't get done when they don't even have a majority at all. But of course, the thought of a return to a Howard Government (albeit with son-of-Howard) frightens me even more. So far, the gentlemen on the cross benches seem fairly sane, rational and logical people to me which is reassuring; and whats important is they are not handicapped by party-political rubbish.
What happened to Labor in the last three years is staggering. A year ago they faced the opportunity of pulling the trigger on a double-dissolution election and doubling their majority to more than 30. Now, I feel they fully deserve to lose their majority. They were hopeless. I follow politics fairly closely and I have no idea how they threw away all that goodwill we gave them in 2007 (which was very much akin to the wave of euphoria experienced by Blair in 1997 or Obama in 2008.) But despite all of that confidence and hope, they collapsed amid in-fighting, factional mendacity and incompetance. Speaking for myself, while I said I'd still vote Labor (and I did) I did so with no enthusiasm after the betrayal of the ETS-surrender. What we have before us now is a government who's only real achievement - economic stability and an apology aside - is attempted political suicide. A classic cry for help.
Well help is at hand*: meet The Independents.
* = of course its true that The Liberals can try to form a government, but my bet is they will fail despite the Nationals. But I got that wrong in the UK in May too!