MrGareth’s Missives

I'm not going to read this book.  I'm not even going to flick through the pages in a bookshop.  But I must say I'm enjoying the apparent open season on John Howard the publishing of his memoirs has prompted.  So much so that as a passionate Howard-hater, I thought I'd add my own voice to the chorus of derision and criticism deservedly heading his way.

Among a bag of other enjoyable barbs, Jeff Kennett concluded that John Howard had no legacy. I disagree slightly - the only legacy he has in my opinion is his longevity - the second longest serving Prime Minister in Australian History in fact.  This is no doubt because that is all John Howard put his mind to: his longevity.  The John Howard Prime Ministership was focussed on one outcome alone - the preservation and survival of the John Howard Prime Ministership.  I feel that this book is very similar, designed to contribute nothing to the national record but for the preservation of his legacy.  (Somewhat in vain given the lack there-of.)

How can I say all this without reading it?  Well, John Brown's words on "Party Liners" on @702Sydney this morning helped me to that conclusion.  He does not, apparently, address in the book any of the following:

- His refusal to say sorry to the aboriginal population when political consensus was agreed that it was time

- His complicity in the invasion of Iraq based on a fallacy that there were WMD when there weren't - despite the warnings of the now Independent Senator and then ASIO analyst Andrew Wilkie, whom he derided and victimised

- His complicity in the unforgiveable Children Over Board scandal

These three crimes are his legacy if there's anything, and to gloss over them is frankly irresponsible for one attempting historical documentation. This goes somewhat to Kennet's further - and amusing - accusation that he has a Christlike image of his own infallability.  Naturally, his view of history sees himself only as a virtuous and unmalignable national hero; those events that conflict with that are seen through/over/passed.  This smacks of outrageous hubris.

Moving to the great Costello debate, I tire of this ordinarily as I dislike Costello as much as Howard and in fact find his self-serving, arrogant whines even more grating than Howard's.  However, in this case even Costello has joined the fray to set the record straight.  Howard maintains that he welched on the leadership deal between them based on Costello's behaviour around its publication in July 2006.  Doesn't this smack of childish petulence?

As to leadership he always stuck to the convenient line that he would stay as long as his party wanted him to.  Yet summary of his decision to fight the 2007 election, and the failure of those around him to persuade him to resign, is that his wife and children persuaded him to fight so he didn't look as if he was running from a fight with Rudd.  His own family overuled his party?  Doesn't this inconsistency smack of a woeful lack of integrity?

In fact, given my premise above, that his only interest was his own political survival and that of the party was irrelevant, it is actually no surprise that he welched on both commitments to a. pass the leadership batton to Costello and b. resign when his party clearly no longer wanted him.  How his party fared in the 2007 election was unimportant to him if he was not there to lead it.

(Its worth reading both Leo Shanahan's article on Punch about this, as well as Phillip Coorey's in the Herald.)

Further thoughts from Kennett about how he squandered an historical economic boom by indulging only in debt-management, middle-class welfare expansion and international aggrandisement are valid also I feel.  A complete lack of investment in infrastructure was pure irresponsibilty; and his shameless sychophancy towards George Bush position Australia as Infidel-puppy in the minds of much of the muslim world when it needn't be. 

All I'd say is that from what I understand, his battle over firearms early on in his tenure is about the only thing that doesn't look like self-serving machinations and is instead genuine national leadership.  But his disgraceful and calculated behaviour over the Tampa alone is enough to completely invalidate this as a virtue.  I think Mr Kennett sums up Mr Howard's psychological short-comings rather well so I feel I should leave the last word with him:

"John must believe that he had all the answers, and that he was almost infallible.  He joins only one other individual on earth's surface over history that can claim that credit, the rest of us are mere mortals and we do our best."

So, there's still three seats in play and we won't have a final result until sometime next week, so the principle upshot is that like a score draw in a cup final, we now go into political penalties: furious horse trading just like in the UK in May. 

Annabel Crab summed it up best: "national puzzlement...a collective 'huh?'"  It seems that bereft of any real inpsiration or enthusiasm with either side, the nation abstained as if as one voice.  A deafening silence.  And now a motley crew of five, possibly six, "cross" bench-ers hold the fate of the naiton in their hands. 

As a self-confessed champagne socialist I still managed to find some things to celebrate on Saturday night (I over-optimistically bought a lot of champagne!), and here's how I Tweeted these highlights:

• "To be honest happy to see the back of McKew. Great Lateline host, rubbish pollie!"
• "Nice to see the Greens in the house of reps, although I'd rather have Tanner"
• "Sen. Fielding's gone? Oh champion, that's cheered me up no end!"
• "At least Wilson tuckey got sacked, there's some justice"

Also, of course, the election of the first indigenous and muslim members of the House of Reps, and the first child, should be noted; as well as as many as Nine Greens now holding the balance of power in the senate from July next year, which means the environment will again become an urgent priority for whomever is in government, instead of the elephant in the room.  

Of the three seats up for grabs (I think they are Brisbane, Dennison and Hasluck) and I think Labor will win Brisbane, Andrew Wilkie will have Dennison and Tony Crook will win Hasluck.  Of the "cross bench-ers" one is a green who has already declared for labor, one is an ex-green and three are former nationals who hate the national party but are naturally conservatives.  Certainly the fate of two policies - the NBN and the ETS - are now probably secure because between the independents and the Greens both these acronyms will be key show-stoppers on any negotiation if they are ruled out.  (There is a possible sixth element in Tony Crook who can't seem to decide if he wants to be a National inside or outside the party room, or inside or outside the Coalition.)  In short - there's one seat it and of the three yet to call, one could go to Labor or the Coalition and the other two are weird.

What concerns me the most is exactly what Mr Rabbit said - this was a govt that couldn't organize a piss up in a brewery WITH a 17 seat majority, I dread to think what we won't get done when they don't even have a majority at all.  But of course, the thought of a return to a Howard Government (albeit with son-of-Howard) frightens me even more.  So far, the gentlemen on the cross benches seem fairly sane, rational and logical people to me which is reassuring; and whats important is they are not handicapped by party-political rubbish.

What happened to Labor in the last three years is staggering.  A year ago they faced the opportunity of pulling the trigger on a double-dissolution election and doubling their majority to more than 30.  Now, I feel they fully deserve to lose their majority.  They were hopeless.  I follow politics fairly closely and I have no idea how they threw away all that goodwill we gave them in 2007 (which was very much akin to the wave of euphoria experienced by Blair  in 1997 or Obama in 2008.)  But despite all of that confidence and hope, they collapsed amid in-fighting, factional mendacity and incompetance.  Speaking for myself, while I said I'd still vote Labor (and I did) I did so with no enthusiasm after the betrayal of the ETS-surrender.  What we have before us now is a government who's only real achievement - economic stability and an apology aside - is attempted political suicide.  A classic cry for help. 

Well help is at hand*: meet The Independents.

 * = of course its true that The Liberals can try to form a  government, but my bet is they will fail despite the Nationals.  But I got that wrong in the UK in May too!