I wonder if the UK election on May 6 is going to be a repeat of 1992 – but completely in reverse.
As I remember it, The Tories staggered into the 1992 election in much the same state Labour are now. With an economy in shatters, an unelected leader – John Major – who while experiencing a slight bounce of popularity initially purely for not being his hated immediate predecessor – John's Margaret Thatcher to Gordon’s Tony Blair – normal unpopularity service was quickly resumed. The Tories were HATED and Labour were a sure thing.But, as the election grew closer and closer, the polls converged. A Hung Parliament began to appear to be a distinct possibility. As today, many speculate that “its too close to call”. How Cameron has haemorrhaged his apparently unassailable lead is not clear to me living 11,000 miles away and not across the British political scene as much as I’d like to be. But I wonder if its for the same reasons that Kinnock managed to lose in 1992. To win a landslide in Britain with the “first past the post system” (FPTP) you’ve got to win over so-called “Middle England”. This isn’t so much a place as a state of mind. For Thatcher it was the Essex Man; Cameron seems to call them the "Great Ignored". Upper Working Class types with aspirations for better things. She promised them self-betterment, and Blair – as her theoretical heir – re-promised it. They are a mix of Tory and Labour fair-weather supporters.For the Tory flavour, Kinnock was as much anathema as Cameron is to today’s Labour equivalent. Just as Cameron offends the working-class man – however disloyal – with his rich, privileged Etonian born-with-a-silver-spoon smoothness; so Kinnock was abhorrent to any swinging Tories. Not only was he Welsh and Socialist – even his hair was red!I think when it comes to voting day – perhaps the result will be the same but in complete reverse: a slight majority for the incumbent (Major stunned everyone with a majority of about 20, which he steadily pissed away over the next 5 years). Not enough voters will be able to bring themselves to make a tick in favour of this anachronism just as they couldn't bring themselves to vote in Kinnock as PM. Kinnock's perceived arrogance and complascency (excemplified in the famous Sheffield Rally - said to have lost the election for him) - is also an echo of criticism of Cameron. This is entirely possible given what a complete eediot-muppet Cameron is quickly revealing himself to be: And maybe thats for the best. In 1992 I hoped for a hung parliament. I longed for the paradise I imagined “consensus” politics might achieve. I wanted Lib Deb balance-of-power. After nearly 10 years down under, FPTP Rules! The Federal Government hasn’t controlled the Senate here for more than about 18 months since I’ve been here and legislative failure is the name of the game. Labor’s failure to pass the ETS Bill is a case in point. Today’s minority government decision in Tasmania is a great example of PR (Proportional Representation of course, not my profession!) of how it can fail the electorate. And as I’ve always said, the idiocy of Steven Fielding of the so-called “Family First” Party is the perfect reason why PR and consensus politics talks a great game but delivers nothing but farce.So I might be going out on a limb here but: I hereby predict (slightly wishfully) that Labour pull victory from the dark jaws of defeat.
